Selected
Articles
Game Theory
"Colonel Blotto in the War
on Terror: Implications for Event Frequency," 2009 (with
Zhan Shen), Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management,
6, 1, 18, 1-16.
"Social Stability and Catastrophe
Risk: Lessons from the Stag Hunt," 2008 (with Zhan
Shen), Journal of Theoretical Politics, 20, 4, 477-497.
"Can Independent Underwriters Benefit
Insurers in High-Risk Lines? A Cournot Market-Game Analysis,"
2008 (with Jiang Cheng), Assurances (Insurance and Risk Management),
76, 3, 5-44.
"Using Aumann-Shapley Values to Allocate
Insurance Risk: The Case of Inhomogeneous Losses," 2007,
North American Actuarial Journal, 11, 3, 113-127.
"A 'Square-Root Rule' for Reinsurance,"
2006 (with Martin Shubik), Revista de Contabilidade e Finanças
(Review of Accounting and Finance), 17, 5, 101-107.
"Forecasts from Biased Experts: A
'Meta-Credibility' Problem," 2005, Journal of Risk Finance,
6, 1, 47-59.
"Toward a Theory of Reinsurance and
Retrocession," 2001 (with Martin Shubik), Insurance:
Mathematics and Economics, 29, 2, 271-290.
"Insurance Market Games: Scale Effects
and Public Policy," 1998 (with Martin Shubik and Shun Tian
Yao), Zeitschrift für Nationalökonomie (Journal
of Economics), 67, 2, 109-134.
"On the Tradeoff between the Law of
Large Numbers and Oligopoly in Insurance," 1998 (with Martin
Shubik), Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 23, 2,
141-156.
Stochastic Models
"The Valuation of Contingent Capital
with Catastrophe Risks," 2009 (with Shih-Kuei Lin and Chia-Chien
Chang), Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 45, 1, 65-73.
"Risk and Return Measures for a Non-Gaussian
World," 2009 (with Thomas Y. Powers), Journal of Financial
Transformation, 25, 51-54.
"Of Happy and Hapless Regulators:
The Asymptotics of Ruin," 2003 (with Emilio C. Venezian
and Iana B. Jucá), Insurance: Mathematics and Economics,
32, 2, 317-330.
"Catastrophe Risk and Insurer Solvency:
A Diffusion-Jump Analysis," 2003 (with Jiandong Ren), Assurances
(Insurance and Risk Management), 71, 2, 239-263.
"A Theory of Risk, Return, and Solvency,"
1995, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 17, 2, 101-118.
Insurance Economics
/ Practice
"Life-Insurance Efficiency in China:
A Comparison of Foreign and Domestic Firms," 2009 (with
Bingzheng Chen and Joseph Qiu), China and World Economy,
forthcoming.
"Adverse Selection or Advantageous
Selection? Risk and Underwriting in China's Health-Insurance
Market," 2009 (with Feng Gao and Jun Wang), Insurance:
Mathematics and Economics, 44, 3, 505-510.
"Development of the Chinese Life Insurance
Industry: An Efficiency Analysis," 2008 (with Bingzheng
Chen and Joseph Qiu), Journal of Financial Transformation,
22, 123-130.
"Insurance," 2007 (with Piyawadee
Khovidhunkit), in Encyclopedia of Electrical and Electronics
Engineering, Volume 10 (John G. Webster, ed.), New York:
John Wiley and Sons.
"Mean-Preserving Transformations:
Market Insurance vs. Self-Insurance," 2004 (with Larry Y.
Tzeng), Journal of Insurance and Risk Management, 2, 4,
15-28.
"'Leapfrogging' the Variance: The
Financial Management of Extreme-Event Risk," 2003, Journal
of Risk Finance, 4, 4, 26-39.
"Competitive Equilibrium in Insurance:
A Risk Transfer Analysis," 2003 (with Larry Y. Tzeng), Journal
of Insurance and Risk Management, 1, 2, 27-45.
"Risk Transformations, Deductibles,
and Policy Limits," 2001 (with Larry Y. Tzeng), Journal
of Risk and Insurance, 68, 3, 465-473.
"Automobile Insurance: The 'Modal'
Property-Liability Line," 2001, Risk Management and Insurance
Review, 4, 1, 35-38.
"Seeking the Perfect Catastrophe Index,"
1997 (with Imelda Y. Powers), Best's Review, Property/Casualty
Edition, December, 101-103.
Regulation / Public
Policy
"'Leapfrogging' Insurance Technology:
Regulating Opportunity in Developing Property-Liability Markets,"
2007 (with R. B. Drennan, Jr. and Imelda Y. Powers), Journal
of Insurance and Risk Management, 6, 11, 37-47.
"What Is Insurance? Toward a Theory
of 'Aloof' and 'Quasi-Aloof' Financial Risks," 2007 (with
R. B. Drennan, Jr.), Journal of Insurance and Risk Management,
5, 10, 1-11.
"How Taxes Affect Market Price: The
'Longs and Shorts' of Discounting and Information," 2005
(with David M. Schizer and Martin Shubik), Journal of Derivatives
Accounting, 2, 2, 155-164.
"September 11 Victims, Random Events,
and the Ethics of Compensation," 2004 (with Edward L. Lascher,
Jr.), American Behavioral Scientist, 48, 3, 281-294.
"The Relationship between Underwriting
Profit Margin and Investment Income: Changes in Competitiveness
in Property and Liability Insurance," 2004 (with Chao-chun
Leng and Emilio C. Venezian), Journal of Insurance and Risk
Management, 3, 5, 35-61.
"Market Bubbles and Wasteful Avoidance:
Tax and Regulatory Constraints on Short Sales," 2004 (with
David M. Schizer and Martin Shubik), Tax Law Review, 57,
2, 233-274.
"Did Regulation Change Competitiveness
in Property-Liability Insurance? Evidence from Underwriting and
Investment Income," 2002 (with Chao-chun Leng and Emilio
C. Venezian), Journal of Insurance Regulation, 21, 2,
57-77.
"What Is Insurance? Lessons from the
Captive Insurance Tax Controversy," 1999 (with M. Moshe
Porat), Risk Management and Insurance Review, 2, 2, 72-80.
"Insurance Premium Taxes: A Lump-Sum
Proposal," 1998 (with Larry Y. Tzeng), Public Finance
Review, 26, 1, 53-66.
"Expert Opinion and Automobile Insurance
Reform: An Empirical Assessment," 1997 (with Edward L. Lascher,
Jr.), Journal of Insurance Regulation, 16, 2, 197-222.
"Captive Insurance Tax Policy: Resolving
a Global Problem," 1995 (with M. Moshe Porat), Geneva
Papers on Risk and Insurance: Issues and Practice,
20, 75, 197-229.
"A Unified Approach to Captive Insurance
Tax Policy: Theory and Practice," 1994 (with M. Moshe Porat),
Risk Management, September, 50-63.
"Captive Insurer Insolvency: Piercing
the Corporate Veil," 1993 (with M. Moshe Porat), Journal
of Insurance Regulation, 12, 2, 221-244.
"Equity in Automobile Insurance: Optional
No-Fault," 1992, Journal of Risk and Insurance, 59,
2, 203-220.
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Journal
of Risk Finance Editorials
"Presbyter
Takes Knight," 2010, Journal of Risk Finance, 11,
1.
"How Money
Got Its Tail (Not Too Heavy; Not Too Light; but 'Just So'),"
2009, Journal of Risk Finance, 10, 5.
"Constant-Sum
Sampling: An Apology for Statistics' 'Original Sin,'" 2009,
Journal of Risk Finance, 10, 4.
"Rethinking
Risk and Return: Part 2 - Some Felicitous Fourier Frequencies,"
2009, Journal of Risk Finance, 10, 3.
"Rethinking
Risk and Return: Part 1 - Novel Norms for Non-Normality?"
2009, Journal of Risk Finance, 10, 2.
"Insurance
Regulation in America - Playing Out of Its League," 2009,
Journal of Risk Finance, 10, 1.
"Combining Information
about . . . Combining Information," 2008, Journal of
Risk Finance, 9, 5.
"The Sequential
Sawyer - A Tale of Frequentist Fright," 2008, Journal
of Risk Finance, 9, 4.
"Lanchester
Resurgent? The Mathematics of Terrorism Risk," 2008, Journal
of Risk Finance, 9, 3.
"The Nature
of Randomness: Part 2 - Cognitive Constraints," 2008, Journal
of Risk Finance, 9, 2.
"The Nature
of Randomness: Part 1 - Knowable or Unknowable?" 2008, Journal
of Risk Finance, 9, 1.
"Intuition and
Surprise," 2007, Journal of Risk Finance, 8, 5.
"Thoughts on
the 'Scientific Method': Part 2 - Frequentist Fecklessness,"
2007, Journal of Risk Finance, 8, 4.
"Thoughts on
the 'Scientific Method': Part 1 - Ignorance through Inconsistency,"
2007, Journal of Risk Finance, 8, 3.
"Sharing Responsibility:
What They Didn't Teach You in Kindergarten," 2007, Journal
of Risk Finance, 8, 2.
"Human Mortality:
Written in the Stars?" 2007, Journal of Risk Finance,
8, 1.
"Catastrophe
Forecasting: Seeing 'Gray' among the 'Black Boxes,'" 2006,
Journal of Risk Finance, 7, 5.
"Pure vs. Speculative
Risk: False Choice; Sham Marriage," 2006, Journal of
Risk Finance, 7, 4.
"The Cramér-Rao
Lower Bound on Variance: Adam and Eve's 'Uncertainty Principle,'"
2006, Journal of Risk Finance, 7, 3.
"An Insurance
Paradox," 2006, Journal of Risk Finance, 7, 2.
"From Hunter
to Prisoner: Hurricane Katrina and the Social Contract,"
2006, Journal of Risk Finance, 7, 1.
"Salutary Skewness:
Risk Financing of the Third Kind?" 2005, Journal of Risk
Finance, 6, 5.
"The Terror
of the 'Black Box,'" 2005, Journal of Risk Finance,
6, 4.
"Mortality:
The Alpha and the Omega of Risk," 2005, Journal of Risk
Finance, 6, 3.
"If It Ain't
Brokin' (or Regulatin'), Don't Fix It," 2005, Journal
of Risk Finance, 6, 2.
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 |
Memberships
|
Contact
Information
- 614 Alter Hall (006-07)
- 1801 Liacouras Walk
- Temple University
- Philadelphia, PA 19122
-
- Phone: (215) 204-7293
- Fax: (215) 204-4712
- E-mail: michael.powers@temple.edu
|
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Courses
/ Seminars
AS
2101 (formerly AS 262)
(Fall
2009)
|
AS 2101 (formerly AS
262)
AS 2501 (formerly AS
061)
(Spring
2010)
|
AS 2101 (formerly AS
262)
(Fall
2008)
|
AS 2101 (formerly AS
262)
AS
2501 (formerly AS 061)
(Spring
2009)
|
On Leave
(Fall
2006, Spring
2007, Fall
2007)
|
Visiting Tsinghua University
(Spring
2008)
|
AS 262 (Probability)
BA
773
(Fall
2005)
|
AS
316/516
(Spring
2006)
|
AS 262 (Probability)
(Fall 2004)
|
AS 262 (Probability)
AS 316/516
(Spring
2005)
|
BA 773
(Fall
2003)
|
AS
262 (Statistics)
AS 316/516
(Spring
2004)
|
AS
218/518
(Fall
2002)
|
AS 262 (Probability)
AS 316/516
(Spring
2003)
|
AS 218/518
BA 773
(Fall
2001)
|
AS 316/516
RMI
570 (module)
(Spring
2002)
|
AS 316/516
BA
512 (module)
(Fall
2000)
|
AS 218/518
RMI 570 (module)
(Spring
2001)
|
SEMINARS
|
BA 773
(Spring
2000)
|
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Hurricane
Forecasts
Since mid-December 2005, Professor
Powers and his wife, Imelda Y. Powers, have provided an annual
forecast of the total number of Atlantic-Basin hurricanes to
arise in the subsequent hurricane season (June 1 - November 30).
This year-end prediction, known as the "Yang-Powers"
hurricane forecast, is based upon the simple statistical methodology
described in "Catastrophe
Forecasting: Seeing 'Gray' among the 'Black Boxes,'" 2006,
Journal of Risk Finance, 7, 5. In the table below, the Yang-Powers forecasts
are compared to the "industry-standard" December predictions
made by Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray.
|
Hurricane
Season |
Yang-Powers
Forecast (Dec.) |
Klotzbach-Gray
Forecast (Dec.) |
Actual
Number of Hurricanes |
|
2006 |
8 |
9 |
5 |
|
2007 |
7 |
7 |
6 |
|
2008 |
7 |
7 |
8 |
|
2009 |
6 |
7 |
??? |
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 |
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