recent update on Nigeria (Jan 2006)

A. Development: change and stresses

• urbanization, industrialization loosen people from traditional social controls
• cultural change (language, religion, secular western media)
• demography, rapid  growth of young people (demographic transition)
• drop in infant mortality (sanitation, vaccinations)
• increase in family size
• delayed drop in fertility control
• eventually drop when
• health, survivorship improves
• cost of children increases (housing, education, cost of child care

• artificial state, low legitimacy, difficulty of "nation building"
• boundaries drawn by colonial powers --Congress of Berlin, 1885-- map of Africa, 1913
• colonies became countries at times of independence
• state is successor to colonial administration based on conquest, bureaucratic control, no democracy, exploitation
• includes many peoples with a history of conquest, revenge
• the new state has no links to social or cultural traditions
• state is successor to colonial administration based on conquest, bureaucratic control, no democracy, exploitation
• Kleptocracy (super, institutionalized corruption)
•  Transparency International   Home Page | Corruption Index
• Conflict over natural resources
• "curse of wealth" - NYT  other writers:    William Easterly, Melissa Thomas (U. Md) , Scott Pegg (Indiana University)  Terry Lynn Karl (Stanford), Michael Ross (UCLA)
• diamonds in Africa (article in the New York Times)
• also in Brazil
• petroleum  "The petro-state" (Nigeria, Venezuela, Mid-East, Russia?)
• petroleum revenue funds political patronage system
• Nigerian example Nov 2006
• oil rich, weak institutions, poorly functioning public sector.
• oil generates revenue and taxes, highly concentrated
• oil provides very little employment
• no benefits for people living near wells, refineries, pipelines.
• dangers of pipelines -- stealing, fires (Nigerian example)
• volatile revenue stream, economic instability.
• ownership of good farm land
• "land reform" eg. Zimbabwe
• aggravated by population growth, migration in search of land
• Brazil example
• Nepal example
• land use (conflict between settled farmers and livestock herders)
• regions with valuable crops (drugs-NYTimes article, timber)
• Civil - Military cycle

• civilian government is can't solve problems
• poverty, inflation
• corruption
• riots, demonstrations
• military coup
• repression, "disappearances"   (check this article about Brazil and Latin Ameria)
• corruption -  Nigeria money politics
• demonstrations
• big repression or step down (amnesty)
• civilian government
• transition to democracy? How many times will cycle be repeated?
• In fact, since 1980's, democracy has expanded around the world
• Spain, Portugal, Greece in 1970's
• 1980's Latin America
• 1991 Soviet Union, East Europe
• 1990s  Africa (NYT June 2, 2002)
• communal violence. Is it aggravated by development and democracy?
• government powers and responsibilities expand
• government favors one cultural group (cultural hegemony)
•  political appointments
• economic policies
• access to resources (land, water, slaves) eg:  Darfur Conflict - 1 - 2 - 3
• population increases and poverty increases the intensity of these conflicts (eg: Brazil)
• cultural (religious, language, education)
• law
• other group(s) resist, try to defend their interests
• democratic competition brings ethnic based political parties, demagogues (Africa has feared democracy for this reason)
• elite politicians and terrorists provoke violence to weaken government
• (Examples: Rwanda1 - 2 - religious tensions in Indonesia)
• weakened central state (previously empire, dictatorship) unable to take decisive actions to solve problems.
• result: many large-scale civil wars
• "failed state."  protracted communal violence

•  "uneven development"
• some places and regions get rich rapidly
• some places and people improve very slowly or might get worse
• economic differentiation increases
• people get angry and tensions sharpen
• they fall behind others, and fail to live up to the images in new global media.
• result: "relative deprivation" (with respect to expectations)
• environmental degredaton
• from excessive exploitation of environment
•  poor control over environment, vulnerable to drought, floods, etc.
• theory of "dependency:"  Third world countries are exploited by first world through colonialism and then "neo-colonialism.  Third world countries are dependent for:
• technology
• capital
• prices and markets for exports, declining terms of trade
• military support
• road to backruptcy
• costs of imports go up
• export revenue can't keep up
• run out of money, take loans
• can't pay off loans, fall into debt trap.
•  dependency, "structural adjustment" imposed by IMF "conditions"
• also referred to as "neo-liberalism"
• in line with the word "libertarian," meaning that maximum market forces, minimum government role in steering the economy.
• reduce imports
• increase exports
• devalue currency
• cut subsidies for food, transportation (gasoline)
• privatize the economy
• allow more foreign investment
• reduce government regulations
• reduce corruption
• real elections, democracy
• Results:
• short term, poor are hurt, rich do well
• long term: will there be long term growth?  not clear yet
• check World Bank research on economic growth
• Issues: (NYT June 2, 2002)
• role of state, is Asian government a good model?
• Will rich countries open their markets for imports from very poor countries?
• the shrimp wars
• Review of Fair Trade for All