A. Russian Strategy:  The BIG BANG

Key Strategy:  Since political and economic reforms are intertwined, do them simultaneously

        Political Reform:  Create a European Democratic Constitution (1993)
        Economic Reform:  Create a market system

1. President (very powerful)
        Boris Yeltsin (1991, 1996)   Vladimir Putin (2000, 2004)
    a. directly elected, run-off to ensure majority
 

Presidential Candidate	1991 % votes	1996 % votes	2000 % votes	2004 % votes
Yeltsin	57	35  - 54
Putin			53	71
Ryzhkov (CP)	17
Zyuganov (CP)		32 - 40	29
Kharitonov (CP)				14
Zhirinovsky	8	6	3
Labed	15
Yavlinsky	7	6

    b. 2 four-year terms
         will Putin retire?  1- 2
    c. serves as head of state, commander of armed forces
    d. has powers to:

    issue edicts
    declare war
    declare state of emergency
    dissolve lower house
    schedule elections in lower house
    call referendum
    appoint ministers, prosecutors, judges

2. Prime Minister
    a. can succeed president if he dies
    b. appointed by president, needs approval of lower house

3. Federal Assembly (provides democratic participation)
    can impeach president (2/3 majority)
    passes laws

    a. Federation Council - 178 members
             Initially 2 from each of 89 regions
             After 2000, representatives appointed by local legislatures and their executives
             Powers:
                can reject laws involving economy or defense
                confirms presidential nominations to constitutional and supreme court
                approves changes to internal borders
                approves declaration of martial law or state of emergency
                schedules presidential elections
                power to initiate impeachment of president
 

    b. State Duma - 450 members
            225: selected by Proportional Representation (5% threshold)
             Note: threshold raised to 7% in Feb. 2007, just before an election.

            225: single member districts
            passes laws
            can over-ride rejection of Federation Council (needs 2/3 majority)

4. Constitutional Court
    Powers not yet clear

5. New Party System
    a. Change from a Communist Ruling Party system
        At first, a competitive multi party system
        Under Putin, a dominant one party system
            The president's party dominates, but there are numerous small parties.
 

    b. From highly disciplined party to low discipline

    c. The old Communist Party was outlawed;
        a new, more democratic one was formed

    d. Party distribution, 1993, 2003

6. Result:
    Very unstable multi-party system
    Very little legitimacy
    President Putin emerging as dominant leader (in classic Russian tradition)
    Gradual improvement from 1991, but not able to solve problems (yet)
expanding central control over economy, esp. petroleum
     petropolitics

       serious inflation of early 1990s wiped out middle class; inflation continues
        industry -- previously integrated in Soviet Union,
                now difficult to re-arrange into separate countries. (eg: natural gas)
restricting political opposition  (critique of putin)
expanding influence and control of press (reporters assassinated)
corruption involved in privatization (asset ripoff) (esp natural resources)
         seems to be growing .....

    economy -- increasing reliance on petroleum exports,
                central government (Putin) is gaining more control of petroleum
        -some older workers think things were better under Stalin
            no inflation, no unemployment, a secure life (if you were not political)
    agriculture

-very slow in dissolving collective agriculture
-farmers fear landlords will capture all benefits of reform
    ethnic politics
        -Chechnya remains a very serious problem--
                Chechnya seeks self-determination/independence as Muslim state
                    and control of oil and oil pipelines
                Russia uses extensive force to suppress Chechnya
                Chechen rebels use extreme terrorism
                    capture hospital, theater, school, blow up apartment buildings
Role of religion (Russian Orthodoxy) is expanding 1-, reunifying

Overview-- Russia in Feb. 2007
Russia under Putin: Toward Democracy or Dictatorship
Feb 2008, control of election

B. China: Market Leninism

1. Key strategy: Since economic reforms are so complex and destablizing, political reform should be delayed and done very gradually (over decades)
            Tiananmen Square 1989 maintain repression, one party rule
            Deng Xiaoping's trip South, 1993, move towards capitalism
        Party seems united on this policy and masses seem tolerant of this policy
 

2. dictatorial forces still very strong, deeply embeded in culture and history:

        a. Confucian traditions
            obey ruler like you obey father
            centralized bureaucratic empire
            government of men, not laws
            government by personal connections, but by institutionalized procedure

b. "Hydraulic Society" flood control required centralized despotic government to ensure everyone helped maintain the dikes.

3. Communist Political Reforms (some political reforms, but not structrural)

        a. codification of laws, criminal procedures, trade
        b. local elections beginning
        c. improved quality of delegates to legislative bodies
            but still not elected in open competition
            Begining to challenge corruption, disliked appointments
        d. rationalization of bureaucracy
                change function of bureaucracy from owning/managing to oversight, regulation
                stress education
                rational hiring and promotion
                ensure retirement policy
        e. More freedom of discussion.

4. Results -- Market Leninism continues...
        a. Sustained economic growth, especially in eastern coastal cities
                fueled by foreign trade and foreign investment
        b. Complex social stresses
                generation and regional cultural gaps (western  to traditional)
                rural migration to cities has big impact on cities
                    privatization of industry results in unemployment, collapse of security net
                    workers protest
                extensive corruption
                urban demonstrations about unemployment, loss of benefits
                rural demonstrations about forced (low price) sale of farm land
                        Bureaucrats profit from control of land.
                spring 2006, political tensions and debate
                   3 press articles

        c. Continued dictatorship
                actually, fairly loose compared to past, but--
                prevent any autonomous social organzation
                    political parties, religion, trade unions, students
                    (people who try to form autonomous organization get arrested and jailed)

5. The future -- Potential breakthrough areas: watch to see if/when:
        a. people can form independent political parties
        b. workers try to form unions, students become more autonomous
        c. demonstrations are so frequent and large that they undermine Party legitimacy
        d. divisions emerge within the Communist Party leadership
        e.  By 2004-06, there was a confluence of demonstrations and disorder by

• farmers
• factory workers
• religious groups
• extensive crime, criminal gangs and networks.
• See this article from China Journal, Jan 2006


Can repression prevent these groups from joining together and organizing bigger protests?

• Can the state satisfy demands to stop protests?
• Will communism be disintegrate as it did elsewhere?

C. Overall view of post Soviet Countries:

good source on postcommunist changes

1. Previously 9 countries, now 28

Fully consolidated democracies: (8)
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Slovenia

Emerging democracies: (6)
Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia

Transitional governments: (5)
Ukraine, Georgia, Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Moldova

Semi or fully authoritarian: (9)
Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Azerbaijan
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Kazakstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan

More democratic states have these simularities:
    Break with the past, mass mobilization or electoral revolutions
    New or reformed counter-elites (splits in old CPs or dissident movements)
    Some former CPs have become western style social democratic parties (Hungary)
    Media -- free and diverse
    Civil Society -- churches, unions in some countries, others too atomized by communism
    Political Parties have grown
    Early Economic Reforms support free media, civil society
    International Community -- attraction of European Union, NATO
    Dominant Presidents can emerge, regress towards authoritarianism.
    Mineral Riches -- negative factor -- state can get too much wealth, power.
 
 

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