Or, Should we maintain a strong military presence in East Asia?
Note: We currently have roughly 40,000 troops in South Korea,
50,000 troops at dozens of military bases in Japan and Okinawa
1. Historical Reasons for U.S. troops in East Asia
a. 1945-48 - U.S. troops oriented towards Japan:
- To ensure stability in Japan, to ensure that occupation reforms would be implemented
- to ensure that Japan could not again threaten its neighbors
- To provide protection for Japan without Japan having its own military.
b. 1948 - 90 - Cold war era, oriented at Communist Bloc2. Current Situation
- To protect Japan against threats or attacks from USSR, China
- Fight to assure that South Korea would not be absorbed into Communist Bloc (1950-53)
- Fight to assure that South Vietnam Korea would not be absorbed into Communist Bloc (1965-75)
- To enable horizontal escalation against Soviet military assets in Vladivostok
- To provide logistical support for U.S. military actions in East Asia (Korea, Vietnam)
- Maintain strength and integrity of an anti-communist Indonesia
a. To facilitate support for U.S. allies in Asia3. The appeal of Theater Missile Defense (TMD) System
- South Korea at risk of attack from North Korea
- Taiwan at risk of attack from Chinab. Support War against Terrorism, esp. in Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines.
c. Encourage Japan to play larger global military role in War against Terrorism.
d. While at the same time avoiding Japanese re-militarization, which would trigger a generalized arms race in East Asia ( China > Taiwan, Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, etc. )
a. Protect U.S. military assets in Asia from small scale "rogue" (i.e. N. Korean) attack4. The Problems with TMDb. Protect Taiwan
a. existing ABM treaty with Russia (we have now cancelled this treaty)5. Alternativesb. missile defense is extremely expensive
c. missile defense can be challenged by large, inexpensive offensive
d. missile defense may imply preparations for "first strike," and destabilize a relationship
e. TMD would generate momentum for full scale ABM system that would be even costlier and more provocative
b. negotiate to solve Korea, Taiwan issues
c. preemptive strike in Korea (extremely risky)
Bush-Hu talks,
US-Chinese relations, April 2006
Bush-Hu talks, April 2006