Chapter 1

Who is involved:
 

	UN  security council	nukes	missiles
China	y	y	y
Taiwan		able	y
Japan		able	y
Korea (N)		?	y
Korea (S)		able
Russia	y	y	y
U.S.	y	y	y

History: volatile, sensitive
    -- Culturally similar, but complex rivalries
    -- Korea - contested strategic crossroad, has involved Russia, China, Japan, US
    -- Major trading countries -- US, Japan, China (incl. Taiwan), Korea
    -- Historical conflicts
        Japan's empire (Taiwan, Korea, China, US)
        Cold War Rivalries    (China, Russia, N. Korea  --- US, Japan, Taiwan, S. Korea)
        Two divided states:   Korea  -- China
        Territorial disputes (maritime ones are growing)

More peaceful now than at any time in the past
       No major violence
       No rigid alliances or cold wars

China a Rising Power, revisionist
Russia, declining (?)
Japan maybe stagnant or declining
US retreating hegemon (?)
-- changes create problems to accommodate

Economic Relations
    Rivalries and integration
      NE Asian economies together = North America = Europe
    Big holders of foreign exchange  (5 top)
        Japan, $445 B
        China    259
        Taiwan  156
        S Kor   117
        H K      109

Regional institutions:
    Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) plus Japan, China Korea -- APT
    Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation -- APEC

Problems in prediction-- lots of failures in prediction
   end of cold war
   German re-unification
   collapse of Soviet Union
   Japan did not rise as a superpower
   US did not decline
   9/11 re-classify alliances

Domestic politics
   Free:  US, Japan, S Korea, Taiwan
   NotS:  China, N Korea
   Mid:   Russia