A. Waves of Democracy:

Democracy came in "waves"

1. up to 1930s:
US constitution
England, France, Norway

2. Post WW2
Germany, Italy, Japan
India

3. Third Wave:
1970's Greece, Spain, Portugal
Latin America (1980s)
Collapse of Communism, 1989-91 (East Europe, Russia
East Asia: Taiwan, South Korea  (late 1980's)
 

Spread of Democratic idea by 2000

1. Third wave very successful

            Latin America became democratic
                    (note Mexican change in 2000)
            East Asia: Taiwan, South Korea, Indonesia, Philippines
            Sub-Sahara Africa: situation 2006:
 

Two transfers of power via multiparty elections	One transfer fo power via elections	Multiparty elections but no transfer of Power	No elections
Benin	Cape Verde	Angola	Burundi
Liberia	Central African Republic	Botswana	Comoros
Madagascar	Ivory Coast	Burkina Faso	Congo (B)
Mali	Ghana	Cameroon	Eritrea
	Kenya	Chad	Buinea-Bissau
	Malawi	Equtorial Guinea	Lesotho
	Nigeria	Ethiopia	Niger
	Sao Tome	Gabon	Somalia
	Senegal	Gambia	Swaziland
	Sierra Leone	Guinea	Uganda
	Soth Africa	Mauritania
	Zambia	Mozambique
		Namibia
		Rwanda
		Seychelles
		Sudan
		Tanzania
		Togo
		Zimbabwe

                                Election in Congo, 2006 1 |

2. Even where democracy is not established or consolidated, most political systems ultimately consider democratic elections with competing parties necessary for state legitimacy.  Military coups promise elections and usually conduct them.
    Even Iran, Jordan, Egypt, Algeria have or expect to have elections
    Exceptions: China, North Korea, Cuba, Iraq(!?)

B. Definitions of democracy

1. substantive democracy -- very good, peaceful systems, gauged by outcomes of policy

2. Procedural democracy -- examples: India, El Salvador, Bangladesh
    full democratic elections, full suffrage, no electoral fraud
    minority rights, civil liberties, free press, opposition parties that can and do win.

3. Semi democracy -- examples: Guatemala, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Colombia, Turkey
    elections with repression, outcome is pretty much pre-determined

Ranking of democracy  http://www.worldaudit.org/democracy.htm
 

C. Non Democratic Systems:

After Independence, many states adopted democratic forms, but democracy failed in many places
        exceptions:

India (except for 1975-77 "emergency")
Jamaica and other former British islands in the Carribean.
Costa Rica

Reasons why democracy failed:

1. poverty, polarlized society, very rich and very poor, weak middle class
2. authoritarian political culture
3. resource grabs
        petroleum
        narcotic plants
        diamonds
        drugs
        minerals
        forestry products

4. ethnic tensions
5. ideological states (Communist, Muslim)
6. foreign threats

1. Non-Communist One party states:
agents of national integration, fairly stable and institutionalized,
often established by military, but the military is in background
e.g.: Syria, Iraq,
Classic fascism: (Italy, Spain, Portugal),
 Widespread in Africa
  East Asia: Japan's Meiji model, Taiwan, S. Korea, Indonesia

2. Personalist Systems, "sultanism,"  "charismatic"
Strong dictatorial leader
e.g.: Zaire, Iraq
military control, repression
extensive patron-client, patrimonial systems, corruption
no organized working class
ends in armed rebellion, assassination
Fairly common around the world

3. Military regimes
military provides cohesion, organization for state
sometimes provides order for a while
often becomes corrupt after a while, resulting in opposition
may end in new coup, or civilian government
  note issue of amnesty
Very common, Africa, Latin America, also Asia and Mid-East

4. Communist (totalitarian)
one leader, one party, one ideology
party/state control over media, economy
widespread terror/coercion
Soviet Bloc links
        (Not widespread: Cuba, Vietnam, North Korea,
        maybe Ethiopia, Angola)

5. Blend -- one party, military, personal dictator;
        eg: Paraguay, 1950s-2008 (?)

1. Authoritarian governments were ineffective and corrupt

• economic pressures
• debt trap
• loss of foreign aid
• extravagant corruption (Indonesia, Peru)
• military loss (Greece, Argentina)
• loss of diplomatic recognition (Taiwan)
• foreign pressure
• demonstration effect of democratic change in other countries
• structural adjustment requirements
• military invasion occupation
• US: Germany, Japan, Iraq(?)
• Tanzania: Uganda
• Vietnam: Cambodia

2. economic development, education brought:

• new, expanding middle class, with new political values
• labor unions organized to make demands
• students, often concentrated in major cities, with demands for democracy

3. end of cold war reduced political and military support for dictators
Triggers for democracy- Loss of Political Legitimacy

(remember, Democracy failed in Europe, Hitler came to power through democratic means)

• The democratic dilemma
• deepening democracy means addressing social and economic inequalities
• this can trigger elite authoritarian reaction

• regional resource grabs

        farm land
        petroleum ("Curse of Petroleum)
                Nigeria,
        opium/poppy etc.
        diamonds  (Sierra Leone)
        minerals  (Congo)
        forestry products
 
• increased power of state increases potential disputes about cultural identity -- ethnicity, religion, language
• electoral mobilization can divide the society by ethnicity, class, region, religion.
• in Africa, fear is that democracy will lead to increased tribalization
• Islamic party (examples in Algeria, Palestine, Egypt)
• violence in Sri Lanka (language)
• corruption
• "machine parties" can use corruption in voting
• leaders use patronage
• difficult to establish rule of law
• Dilemma: Democratic rights for non democratic parties?
• communists in various countries?
• Islamic Salvation Front in Algeria after cancelled election, 1992?
• one man - one vote - one time (?)
• terror, counter terror details
• demographic transition, increase in population makes problems more complicated
• more young people entering adulthood, labor market
• more need for farm land, grazing land, and other resources

• Mechanics of voting are very complicated
• creating effective campaigns
• voter registration lists
• secret ballots, one vote only
• money in politics - politics takes money, politicians want support, people want access, what is corruption?
• Capacity Building essential to maintain legitimacy of democracy
• getting taxes paid so public services can be supplied
• law and order, effective police
• economic growth and improvement

reconciling group conflict

• military coups-civilian government cycle

          civilian government can't solve problems

          poverty, inflation  Zimbabwe-example, 2007
          corruption
          parliamentary gridlock
           ethnic tensions
          riots, demonstrations

          military coup

          repression, "disappearances" (forensic anthropology)
          corruption
          demonstrations
          big repression or step down
                with amnesty
                alternative: truth and reconciliation commission
               Chile (1990), El Salvador, Chad, Haiti, Guatemala (?)
                             South Africa (1995), Equador, Nigeria, Peru,
                             Sierra Leone, South Korea, Uruguay, Timor--Leste, Mexico (?)
                             Ghana (2002), Panama, Congo, Liberia, Morocco

• Transition to democracy?
• How many times will cycle be repeated?
• When is the cycle over?  How long does it take to be certain?
• Mid East problem -- curse of petroleum makes dictatorship stable
• Rule No. 1 of Arab-Muslim political life today: You cannot go from Saddam to Jefferson without going through Khomeini — without going through a phase of mosque-led politics
• reason: under dictatorial rule, democratic parties, values, and leaders simply can't survive.  Only the religious institutions can survive dictatorship, so they end up with power.
• Rule No. 2: Removing authoritarian leaders in the Arab-Muslim world won't lead to democracy as long as rulers have wealth and power from petroleum.
• full text of this argument

• Regime change (for any reason) is a normal time of intense conflict

G. Prerequisites for democracy

• Some economic success

    upper classes are moderate, willing to compromise,
        working classes are not desperate
        middle class growing
        broad media/communications system
    literacy, education
    lucrative options of unsuccessful politicians
    economy gets too complex,  autocratic state too inefficient
    military accepts democratic transition
    autonomous middle class, a bourgeoisie, civil society
    rule of law
    widely disbursed ownership of property
        system of property rights
        external pressures (?)
        class conflicts less tense
             upper classes are moderate, willing to compromise,
            working classes are not desperate
            middle class growing
    broad media/communications system

    These changes seem to occur when income reaches around $6,000/captia
 

•  Mass political culture

    positive: Christianity, esp. Protestantism
    neutral: Hindu, Shinto
    negative, Islam, Confucianism
 
•  Leaders' choices, values

        ultimately, democracy emerges from choices by political leaders
        usually in a complex situation of political conflict.

Regime change or stability is sometimes strongly affected by external factors, countries and international agencies

US has been quite active in changing third world regimes
 

• 1953 Iran, displaced Mossadegh regime, installed Phalavi   article1 | 2
• 1953 Guatemala, displaced Arbenz regime
• 1958 Support Lebanon
• 1960 Mobuto in Zaire  1 | 2
• 1962 Attempted invasion of Cuba fails
• 1965 Displaced government in Dominican Republic
• 1965 Support coup in Indonesia  article
• 1973 Support coup in Chile
• 1965-75 Support government of South Vietnam
• continual involvement in Haiti 1915-34, 1994
• 1983 Remove government of Grenada | 2
• 1990 Remove leader of Panama 1 |
• 2002 Overthrow government in Afghanistan
• 2003 Overthrow government in Iraq
• widespread military training, aid, and economic support to many countries, especially in central America (Hondurus,
•         Soviet Union used to do this also.


English and French intervene in their former colonies
Sometimes, UN or West African forces are involved
 

• Liberia
• Sierra Leone
• Ivory Coast