Environmental Limits?
a. Intellectual background:
Thomas Malthus, English demographerand political economist (1766-1834)
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1789 wrote An Essay on the Principle of Population
basic argument:
population growth (exponential)
will outstrip food production (limited by land area),
leads to impoverishment,
misery.
Empirical reality:
food growth is still adequate and will be for more decades
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but there are major "distribution" issues (economic, nature, marketing)
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agricultural and livestock production have major environmental impact
This argument can be extraplated to all natural resources of the biosphere
1972 Club of Rome report on Environmental limits looking at comprehensive
resources
b. Rich countries use most of the resources and create most of the pollution
c. Nevertheless, third world countries also have serious environmental
concerns:
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deforestation, soil erosion, flooding and drought
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desertification of grazing lands report
from Niger (2007)
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salinification of delta areas
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industrial pollutants in fisheries and drinking water
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energy:
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burning of firewood results in erosion problems that affect irrigation
systems
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burning of manure reduces use of manure to maintain soil fertility
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urban areas have air pollution, sewage problems, industrial pollution
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rural areas may abuse insecticides, other chemicals
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dumping of toxic waste of rich countries (Ivory
Coast, 2006)
d. The Global dilemmas:
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As resources become scarce and expensive, third world will have more difficulty
modernizing.
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If third world modernizes and industrializes, these problems become much
worse for everyone, affect the rich countries.
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Will rich countries reduce their appetite for resources and pollution?
Reduction in growth may result in reduction of export markets for third
world.
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Does third world development harm the rich countries?
e. Global negotiations: (massive collective action problems)
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oceans (everyone wants to dump garbage, no one wants to clean up)
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deep sea bed
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atmosphere, outer space
1992 - UN Conference on Environment and Development -- Earth Summit-
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
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Framework Convention on Climate Change -- non binding
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Convention on Biological Diversity
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Agenda 21 - plan of action for sustainable development
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Rio Declaration -- principles on environment and development
1992 - Montreal Protocol came into forcedealing with CFCs
1995 UN Summit on Climate Change -- Berlin
2001 - Kyoto Japan
US withdraws its commitment
to cut greenhouse gases
Results:
publicity on dilemma between environment and growth
Is sustainable development possible?
Check
out books, articles, and activities of Bjorn Lomborg: http://www.lomborg.com/
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use renewable resources, recycle
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little evidence anyone can do this (some progress in Europe)
f. Will rich countries be successful in inventing new, "low impact"
technology?
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low impact diet
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Will higher prices increase research in ecologically improved technologies?
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Historically, petroleum solved the hay and animal manure problems, natural
gas solved the coal smoke problem
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Will nuclear generation of electricity expand?
What about problems of waste, proliferation, and terrorism?
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Will fusion energy ever work?
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See Julian Simon and Herman Khan, The Resourceful Earth
(1984)
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Indications that resource
scarcity is beginning
g. If the global environmental crisis is not solved/solvable,
what are the implications?
"... barring major technological and political breakthroughs,
achieving a level of affluence worldwide would overtax the planet's resources."
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US Military analysis, April 2007, warning global warming will aggravate
problems in poor, third world countires press
report
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Report:: The National Security Implications of Global Climate Change.
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More conflict over access to and control of resources:
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petroleum
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other natural resources
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land for farming and grazing (Sudan/Darfur, Brazil, Nepal, Zimbabwe)